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| Waiting with Bated Breath - Can last year's 2nd go one better in the Sprint Cup? |
Although no longer Betfred’s top race the Sprint Cup at Haydock remains a highlight of the flat season and one of the premier sprint races in the world.
Normally a thoroughly competitive affair – look no further than last year’s controversial three-way photo finish for proof of that – this year’s renewal looks a lot easier to solve due to the presence of Aussie super-mare Ortensia who is dangerously close to stealing the mighty Black Caviar’s limelight on these shores.
She had looked back to somewhere near her best when winning at Glorious Goodwood and was definitely back to her best when coming from almost last to first showing an incredible turn of foot when winning the Nunthorpe at York last month.
Although now stepping up to 6f if she’s in anything like that sort of form she should win again. Worries could be the ground if too soft, but it’s been drier lately and she proved she can cope with cut in the ground – in spite of her trainer’s protestations – when winning the Nunthorpe.
There has also been talk of whether regular partner on British soil William Buick will be able to take the ride and then get over to Ireland to ride Nathaniel in the Irish Champion Stakes later in the day, as obviously the latter takes precedence; but it does look like the man of the moment is going to attempt it.
Should Buick’s attempts to cross the Irish Sea prove to be logistically impossible there are plenty of other top jockeys out there who I’m sure would be falling over each other to ride her and although she got worked up before her run at Royal Ascot in the King’s Stand she seems quite straight forward so I’m not overly concerned who’s on board to be honest.
Ortensia is short in the betting however but for me the horse to give her most to do is also short in the betting and that would be last year’s second Bated Breath.
Every time I’ve written one of these big race previews for a top sprint this year it seems I’ve put this horse up as a danger only to preface that sentiment with the warning that he’s incredibly ground dependent and then be proven right when he runs below par and trainer Roger Charlton takes to twitter to lament the ground.
On his day, and on his ground, he’s top class though and it’s a crime he doesn’t have a Group 1 to his name yet, this could yet be his day with better ground expected – will it be quick enough for Bated Breath though? It’ll certainly put him in with more of a chance than he had in the Nunthorpe but with soft ground the only real chink I can find in Ortensia’s armour too I’d have to say that the Aussie mare has the edge on Bated Breath especially given that she’s expected to improve for the step up in trip.
With the top two short in the betting and the pair of them best priced evens that one of them wins, it’s looking tough to imagine them not being first and second, thus the value move here is to pick something to run in to a place behind them at a bigger price.
The July Cup winner Mayson is next in the betting but with questions marks surrounding that run given the bottomless ground encountered on Newmarket’s July course that day he still has, perhaps unfairly, a lot to prove.
One would assume that with the ground more favourable to the majority of his potential opponents this time around that he’ll struggle to replicate his runaway success back in July.
He’s clearly a talented individual though and he’s to be written off at your peril but I think on paper he should find a couple too good here.
Strong Suit is a top class horse on his best day but recently has struggled to emulate the promising performances he was putting up in his younger days.
His second in the Group 2 Hungerford last time out was down to tactics rather than ability though and he put up an eye-catching performance to almost reel in the front-running Lethal Force. He looked something like back to his best that day but he’s another who is massively ground dependent and there’s the strong suspicion that he is seen to best effect at 7f so is perhaps best watched here.
Society Rock is one who would probably want the ground a bit slower than the rest of these but has high class form in the bag. He’d have probably been a lot closer to Black Caviar at Royal Ascot had he not blown the start and was a solid third behind Mayson in the July Cup.
In all honesty he’s disappointed since his King’s Stand win at Royal Ascot last year and it would take a big return to his best form to land this, he’s not ruled out to do so but with the ground likely on the quick side it’d take a career best to win here.
Lone French raider Wizz Kid would have a chance on the pick of her form (2nd to Deacon Blues on Champion’s Day) and bounced right back to somewhere near her best when chasing home the classy Moonlight Cloud in her demolition job at Deauville in the Prix Maurice De Gheest. For me she looks to be each-way value at 14/1 as I can’t imagine Robert Collet would be sending her up to the North West if she wasn’t bouncing.
Another who, perhaps sentimentally, I’d also give an each-way squeak to is the battle-hardened Hawkeyethenoo who is in the form of his life this year and more than deserves another crack at this level on more suitable ground this time.
He handles cut but the quagmire that he faced in the July Cup was something else entirely and he ran a blinder to finish just behind Ortensia in fifth that day. He then came out and landed the Stewards Cup at Glorious Goodwood under a welter burden to prove he’s still enjoying a terrific season.
This looks a tough ask but he’s earned another crack at Group 1 level and it’s going to be hard to resist a couple of shillings on him each-way.
Betfred Sprint Cup – Selected Best Odds:
Ortensia 11/4
Bated Breath 4/1
Mayson 8/1
Strong Suit 10/1
Society Rock 12/1
Hitchens 14/1
Wizz Kid 14/1
Dandy Boy 16/1
Hawkeyethenoo 16/1
Soul 20/1
Kingsgate Native 33/1
Gordon Lord Byron 33/1
Es Que Love 40/1
Recommendations:
Back Ortensia to win @ 11/4 (Paddy Power)
Back Wizz Kid Each-way @ 14/1 (Betfred, Sportingbet, Ladbrokes, Bodog)
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